Forecast Administration

Configure and manage forecast settings in Tether

Forecast Administration

The Forecast Admin section provides tools for configuring how forecasts are generated, managing bulk data, and controlling forecast versions. These settings significantly impact forecast quality.

Forecast Administration is restricted to Admin users.

Accessing Forecast Admin

Navigate to Demand Forecast → Admin (or through the settings menu).

Admin Tabs

The Forecast Admin page has multiple tabs:

Tab	Purpose
Settings	Model selection and configuration
Upload	Bulk forecast data imports
Versioning	Manage forecast versions

Model Selection

Available Models

Tether may offer multiple forecast models:

Model	Description	Best For
Moving Average	Average of recent periods	Stable demand
Exponential Smoothing	Weighted recent data	Trending products
Seasonal Decomposition	Captures seasonality	Seasonal products
Machine Learning	AI-based predictions	Complex patterns
Consensus	Combination of models	General use

Selecting a Model

1. Go to Settings Tab

   Open the Settings tab in Forecast Admin

2. View Current Model

   See which model is currently selected

3. Select New Model

   Choose a different model from the options

4. Configure Parameters

   Adjust model-specific settings (if available)

5. Save

   Apply the new model selection

Model Parameters

Some models have configurable parameters:

Moving Average:

• Number of periods to average
• Weighting (equal or weighted)

Exponential Smoothing:

• Smoothing factor (alpha)
• Trend factor (beta)
• Seasonal factor (gamma)

Machine Learning:

• Feature selection
• Training period
• Update frequency

Forecast Settings

General Settings

Setting	Description
Forecast Horizon	How far ahead to forecast
Update Frequency	How often forecasts regenerate
Granularity	Daily, weekly, or monthly
Default Channel	Channel for new SKUs

Threshold Settings

Configure alerts and indicators:

Setting	Description
Accuracy Threshold	Alert if accuracy drops below
Change Threshold	Highlight changes above X%
Confidence Interval	Display range (e.g., 95%)

Bulk Upload

Upload Tab

The Upload tab allows importing forecast data in bulk.

Upload Process

1. Download Template

   Click Download Template to get the correct format

2. Prepare Data

   Fill in the template with forecast values:

   • SKU code (required)
   • Channel (required)
   • Period (required)
   • Forecast quantity (required)
3. Upload File

   Click Upload and select your file

4. Preview

   Review the preview of changes:

   • New forecasts to be added
   • Existing forecasts to be updated
   • Errors to resolve
5. Confirm

   Click Apply to import the forecasts

Template Format

Column	Required	Description
sku_code	Yes	SKU identifier
channel_id or channel_name	Yes	Sales channel
period_date	Yes	Date in YYYY-MM-DD or YYYY-MM
quantity	Yes	Forecast quantity
notes	No	Optional notes

Upload Validation

The system validates:

• SKU codes exist
• Channels exist
• Dates are in valid range
• Quantities are numeric and positive

Invalid rows are rejected. Fix errors and re-upload, or proceed with valid rows only.

Upload History

View past uploads:

• Upload date and time
• User who uploaded
• File name
• Record count
• Status (success, partial, failed)

Versioning

What is Forecast Versioning?

Versioning maintains historical snapshots of forecasts:

Version Type	Description
Current	Active forecast being used
Historical	Past versions for comparison
Draft	Work-in-progress (not active)

Versioning Tab

The Versioning tab shows:

• List of forecast versions
• Version dates and descriptions
• Actions (view, restore, compare)

Creating a Version

1. Go to Versioning Tab

   Open the Versioning tab

2. Click Create Version

   Start a new version snapshot

3. Add Details

   • Name: “Q1 2024 Plan”
   • Description: Reason for version
4. Save

   Version is created and stored

Comparing Versions

Compare forecast versions:

1. Select two versions
2. Click Compare
3. View differences by SKU/channel/period

Restoring a Version

To revert to a previous version:

1. Select Version

   Click on the version to restore

2. Click Restore

   Choose Restore action

3. Confirm

   Review what will change and confirm

4. Version Active

   Selected version becomes current

Restoring a version replaces the current forecast. Consider creating a version of the current state first.

Forecast Regeneration

When Forecasts Regenerate

Forecasts typically regenerate:

• On a scheduled basis (daily, weekly)
• When model settings change
• When historical data is updated
• On manual trigger

Manual Regeneration

To trigger a forecast update:

1. Go to Settings

   Open Forecast Admin Settings

2. Click Regenerate

   Find the Regenerate Forecasts button

3. Select Scope

   Choose what to regenerate:

   • All forecasts
   • Specific channels
   • Specific collections
4. Confirm

   Start the regeneration process

5. Monitor

   Track progress and completion

Regeneration may take time for large datasets. User edits are typically preserved unless specifically overwritten.

Data Quality

Monitoring Data Quality

Good forecasts require good data:

Quality Issue	Impact	Solution
Missing history	Inaccurate baseline	Import historical data
Outliers	Distorted patterns	Clean or flag anomalies
Gaps	Incomplete patterns	Fill or interpolate
Late data	Delayed updates	Improve sync timing

Data Quality Indicators

Watch for warnings about:

• SKUs with no history
• Channels with sparse data
• Products with high variability
• Recent data gaps

Best Practices

Model Selection

Choose models carefully:

• Start with simpler models
• Compare performance before switching
• Consider product segments
• Document selection rationale

Regular Updates

Keep forecasts current:

• Ensure regular regeneration
• Monitor data freshness
• Review model performance

Version Discipline

Use versioning effectively:

• Create versions before major changes
• Name versions descriptively
• Compare versions during planning

Upload Carefully

Handle bulk uploads with care:

• Validate data before upload
• Preview changes
• Keep backup of current state
• Document upload purpose

Troubleshooting

Forecasts Not Updating

Possible causes:

• Regeneration not scheduled
• Processing error
• Data sync issues

Solutions:

1. Check regeneration schedule
2. Trigger manual regeneration
3. Review system logs
4. Verify data sources

Upload Errors

Common issues:

• Wrong file format
• Invalid SKU codes
• Date format problems

Solutions:

1. Use the provided template
2. Verify SKU codes exist in system
3. Use standard date formats
4. Check for special characters

Next Steps

Forecast Comparison

Compare forecast model performance

Forecast Dashboard

View and edit forecasts

Promotions

Manage promotional impacts

Edit Log

Configure change tracking