What-If Scenarios

Run scenario analysis for supply chain planning

What-If Scenarios

What-if analysis lets you test different scenarios before making decisions. See how changes in demand, lead times, or supplier availability would affect your supply chain.

What is What-If Analysis?

What-if scenarios modify simulation parameters to answer questions like:

• “What if demand increases 20%?”
• “What if lead times double?”
• “What if a supplier can’t deliver?”
• “What if we expedite an order?”

Why Use What-If Analysis?

Benefit	Description
Risk Assessment	Understand potential issues
Decision Support	Test options before committing
Contingency Planning	Prepare for disruptions
Optimization	Find the best approach

Running What-If Scenarios

Basic What-If Flow

1. Run Baseline

   First, run a standard simulation as your baseline

2. Configure Scenario

   Set up what-if parameters

3. Run Scenario

   Execute the what-if simulation

4. Compare Results

   Review baseline vs. scenario differences

Accessing What-If Mode

1. Navigate to Inventory → Supply Simulation
2. Select What-If Mode or Scenario Analysis
3. Configure parameters
4. Run simulation

Scenario Types

Demand Scenarios

Test changes in customer demand:

Parameter	Description	Example
Demand Multiplier	Scale all demand	1.2 = 20% increase
Specific SKU Adjustment	Change individual products	Double SKU-001 demand
Channel Change	Modify by channel	Wholesale +50%

Use cases:

• Preparing for promotions
• Planning for growth
• Testing downside scenarios

Lead Time Scenarios

Test changes in delivery times:

Parameter	Description	Example
Lead Time Multiplier	Scale all lead times	1.5 = 50% longer
Specific Supplier	Change one supplier	Supplier A +30 days
Route Change	Modify specific routes	Asia +14 days

Use cases:

• Shipping disruptions
• Supplier delays
• Port congestion

Supplier Scenarios

Test supplier availability issues:

Parameter	Description	Example
Supplier Constraint	Limit supplier output	Max 1000 units
Supplier Unavailable	Remove supplier entirely	No orders from Supplier B
New Supplier	Add capability	Add backup supplier

Use cases:

• Supplier bankruptcy
• Quality issues
• Capacity constraints

Configuring Scenarios

Demand Multiplier

1. Enter What-If Mode

   Select scenario analysis option

2. Set Demand Multiplier

   Enter multiplier value:

   • 1.0 = No change
   • 1.2 = 20% increase
   • 0.8 = 20% decrease
3. Run Simulation

   Execute with modified demand

Lead Time Multiplier

1. Enter What-If Mode

   Select scenario analysis option

2. Set Lead Time Multiplier

   Enter multiplier value:

   • 1.0 = No change
   • 1.5 = 50% longer
   • 2.0 = Double the time
3. Run Simulation

   Execute with modified lead times

Supplier Constraints

1. Enter What-If Mode

   Select scenario analysis option

2. Add Constraint

   Specify supplier limitations:

   • Select supplier
   • Set constraint type
   • Define parameters
3. Run Simulation

   Execute with constraints applied

Interpreting Results

Baseline vs. Scenario Comparison

Metric	Baseline	Scenario	Change
Stockouts	5 SKUs	12 SKUs	+7
Coverage Days	45	28	-17
Order Value	$100K	$150K	+$50K
Urgent Orders	3	8	+5

Key Metrics to Compare

Metric	What It Shows
Stockout Count	How many SKUs run out
Stockout Days	Duration of stockouts
Additional Orders	Extra orders needed
Cost Impact	Financial effect
Coverage Change	Inventory buffer change

Visual Comparison

Use charts to see differences:

1. View baseline projection
2. Overlay scenario projection
3. Identify where they diverge
4. Understand the impact

Common Scenarios

Growth Planning

“What if sales grow 25% next quarter?”

Demand Multiplier: 1.25
Time Period: Next quarter

Review:

• Additional inventory needed
• Earlier order dates
• Budget impact

Disruption Planning

“What if shipping from Asia takes 2 weeks longer?”

Lead Time Multiplier: 1.5 (or +14 days for specific routes)
Affected Routes: Asia origins

Review:

• Which SKUs at risk
• Safety stock adequacy
• Alternative sources

Supplier Risk

“What if Supplier X can’t deliver in Q4?”

Supplier Constraint: Supplier X
Constraint: 0 capacity for Q4

Review:

• Impact on inventory
• Alternative suppliers
• Expedite options

Seasonal Demand

“What if holiday demand doubles?”

Demand Multiplier: 2.0
Time Period: November-December

Review:

• Order timing
• Inventory buildup
• Capacity constraints

Using Scenarios for Decisions

When to Run Scenarios

Situation	Scenario to Run
Before promotions	Increased demand
Supply chain news	Lead time changes
Supplier issues	Supplier constraints
Budget planning	Growth scenarios
Risk assessment	Multiple disruptions

Making Decisions

1. Run multiple scenarios - Test optimistic, expected, pessimistic
2. Identify breaking points - Where does supply chain fail?
3. Compare costs - Extra safety stock vs. stockout risk
4. Choose strategy - Balance cost and risk

Best Practices

Start with Baseline

Always understand current state first:

• Run baseline simulation
• Document key metrics
• Use as comparison point

Test Realistic Scenarios

Focus on likely situations:

• Historical disruptions
• Known risks
• Planned changes

Combine Factors

Real disruptions often compound:

• Demand increase + lead time delay
• Supplier issue + increased demand
• Multiple simultaneous challenges

Document and Share

Keep records of analysis:

• Screenshot results
• Note assumptions
• Share with stakeholders

Scenario Analysis Workflow

Comprehensive Analysis

For major decisions, run multiple scenarios:

Scenario	Demand	Lead Time	Purpose
Optimistic	-10%	-20%	Best case
Expected	0%	0%	Baseline
Moderate Risk	+20%	+25%	Likely challenge
Worst Case	+30%	+50%	Stress test

Document Findings

Finding	Current Plan	Recommendation
Stockout risk if lead times +50%	30-day safety stock	Increase to 45 days
Can handle +20% demand	Current inventory	No change needed
Supplier X failure = 12 stockouts	Single source	Add backup supplier

Troubleshooting

Unexpected Scenario Results

Possible causes:

• Incorrect parameters
• Missing data
• Configuration issues

Solutions:

1. Verify multiplier values
2. Check affected items
3. Review constraints

Can’t Compare to Baseline

Possible causes:

• Baseline not saved
• Different time periods
• Data changed

Solutions:

1. Run fresh baseline
2. Use same time period
3. Compare immediately

Next Steps

Running Simulations

Execute simulations

Configurations

Configure parameters

Charts

Visualize results

Supply Plan

Manage orders